Correlation or Causation?

The amount of information about pet heath studies on social media is astounding – and scary. One I have seen referenced a lot from late 2022/early 2023 is if your feed your dog twice a day, he is more likely to die younger. Another one going around currently (early 2024) is how certain dog foods are making dogs sick. As a result, people are suddenly switching foods and causing upset stomachs with their dogs. Ironically the brand of food being blamed is one I have fed more many years without incident. When I see studies “reported” or people making claims, I questioned are things a case of correlation or actual causation.

There is a difference between correlation and causation.

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CORRELATION – These are associations between variables. When one changes so does the other. However, the relationship between the variables is statistical. This does not mean one variable CAUSES the other.

CAUSATION – A change in one variable will cause a change in the other.

An increase in ice cream sales means an increase in shark attacks. Does an increase in ice cream sales mean this will make sharks attack us more?  This is a CORRELATION. During the summer, people are more likely to buy ice cream. We are also more likely to swim in the ocean. Therefore, ice cream sales increasing does not cause an increase in shark attacks. Both tend to happen at the same time of year.

Back to the opening study: dogs fed twice a day are more likely to die younger. Now, correlation or causation?  I say correlation and here is why.

First the dog study is based on research performed on rats in a laboratory setting. There is greater control in a laboratory setting. Second, the dog data was gathered through owner surveys. This means a greater lack of control over subjects. Finally, it has not been peer reviewed. This means the study has been reviewed by others in the field.

The average pet dog I work with is overweight to morbidly obese. The people often say the dog eats once a day. However, the dog is getting far too much food. I had one client dog that was over double a healthy weight for his breed. He was fed once a day. Obesity shortens life spans. The average dog in my experience is overfed no matter how many meals a day the dog gets.

My personal dogs are fed twice a day.  I also use food in enrichment activities and reinforcements during work. Two of my dogs are a good weight while two are a little underweight. I know many dogs fed two and three times a day that are in excellent shape. So, is it the number of times a dog is fed in a day or the overall amount of food the dog gets in that day that is a concern?

Were other factors considered? Large to giant dogs tend to live shorter lives than smaller breeds. Was there anything else that could have shortened the natural life span of the dog? How many dogs were studied? The smaller the study, the less accurate it may be. There are so many questions I have about how the study was done that I have yet to find solidly answered. How is research interpreted? Last year a study came out that if you read the highlights share on social media, by training groups, and the media, the impression given was far from what the actual research discovered. Yes, I read the entire research paper.

What about the dog food making dogs sick? Is it actually the food or something else? Has a laboratory gotten involved and tested the food? Is it the food or how it is stored? I purchased a couple bags of food from a big box supply store. When I opened the first bag, it was full of bug and mold. The company went into action within 24 hours to make sure the issue was not on their end. They checked with the store. It was learned the store had the bags long past the sell by date AND the food was not properly stored. It had nothing to do with the company making the food. Another brand of off was blamed for making dogs sick. It was learned that a distributor stored pallets of bags under a leak in a warehouse roof. The bags became damp and the food went bad. However, the 2007 pet food recalls were found be contaminated with melamine. “Melamine, an industrial chemical, and its related compounds have no approved use as an ingredient in animal or human food in the United States.” (FDA.gov)

So, what is my take on this? I will always use food as a training and enrichment tool. My dogs will eat twice a day. I will work to keep my dogs at a healthier weight for their size. My dogs will keep eating the brand of food they have eaten for years (and I do add things to their kibble including home cooked things). They have never had an issue with this food.

For other research I see mentioned on social media, I will encourage people to look closer and question what they are reading.

About westwinddt

I am a dog trainer in Northern, Virginia (USA). I have been involved with training since 1982.
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